Foreign Office Advised Regarding Armed Intervention to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military intervention to remove the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Show Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government show officials considered options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Isolation Strategy Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the files included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles

It cautioned that military involvement would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we assess that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document adds: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.