Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures

The mean number of everyday murders each month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new government data. But, security specialists have cautioned that murder data may not indicate improved national safety.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in the previous September. This data was delivered by the chief of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded in these months is remarkably notable,” the President said, adding that last month the least number of homicides were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Intense drug cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's heavily military operations to take on the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent times. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than four times higher than the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state stated: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and there is specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The central components of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Increased coordination between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety researchers urged caution that using homicide numbers to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is notably true in light of the increase in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be positive news if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not useful for gauging the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the will to accurately identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was also concerning because it might obscure periods when there were notably high levels of killings.

“Relying on the per-day average renders spikes of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the administration can point to the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to government data. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these actions, Mexico is still beset by extreme violence, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. Last month there was a notable killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

Weeks after, thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their anger at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to build a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” Vargas concluded.