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China has deployed its maritime law enforcement into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones past remote Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.