Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
